A Simulation of the Fluctuations of International Atomic by James A. Barnes

By James A. Barnes

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Following the failure of the Lisbon program, there was a reversion to an asymmetrical solution, based on a restored qualitative advantage in strategic nuclear form, achieved by production of the H-bomb and the subsequent adoption of a 'strategic first-use' policy ('Massive Retaliation'). This was thwarted within the decade by the Soviet Union's acquisition of the same weapon and of long-range bombers of intercontinental range, as well as the first ballistic missiles of medium range. The American response to the advent of the Soviet H-bomb in 1952 could not emulate the reaction to the Soviet A-bomb test of 1949.

Intermediate-range nuclear forces Modernization of Soviet intermediate-range nuclear forces seems to have continued in 1983, with the phasing out of the few remaining, obsolescent liquid-fueled SS-5s and the deployment of additional SS-20s at four sites in Asia. 3 As each SS-20 carries three warheads, the Soviet weapon count has risen quite sharply. The number of SS-20s which the USSR intends to deploy eventually is unclear and will hinge, to some extent, on the Geneva negotiatiOns on intermediate-range nuclear forces.

4 contains data indicating the relative offensive capabilities of US and Soviet strategic nuclear forces at the beginning of 1983 and the start of 1984. The table is divided into two panels, one presenting data on the static capabilities of the two sides; the second measuring those forces which would survive an attack. The first panel includes indices for all strategic forces, central forces only, and intermediate-range forces in Europe alone. Indices of surviving capability are presented only for central forces.

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